The Competent Investor

· Matthew Piepenburg

Matthew Piepenburg: Today's Gold Setup Is Stronger Than the 1970s Bull Market

I sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland and author of Gold Matters, for a conversation that ranged from French riots to the COMEX silver squeeze. What struck me most was his framing of today's gold setup as fundamentally stronger than the 1970s bull market.

I asked Matt about the sentiment he encounters as he travels between conferences and clients across continents. His answer was blunt: "The big themes at a 30,000 foot level are geopolitics, of course, and inflation. It's from family offices to a groom, a polo field. I mean, people talking about this everywhere." He described a middle class that has shifted "from the aspirational to the desperation," feeling poorer no matter what they do.

When I pressed him on whether the US is in a Wile E. Coyote moment, he didn't hesitate. "America is already over the cliff. We just don't know it yet." But he was quick to add that this isn't the end of America—it's the end of its hegemony. The pattern of debt leading to currency debasement to social unrest is, as he put it, "history in math."

On the metals themselves, Matt argued that supply and demand still matter enormously. With only about a billion ounces of gold freely traded against a thousand times larger market cap in stocks and bonds, "only a small move in demand in that very tight supply would crank up the price." He sees the recent silver shakeout—silver losing 35 percent overnight in January—as manipulation, not natural price discovery.

His parting advice carried the weight of someone who's seen cycles before: "Your best revenge against a completely mismanaged system is a good life." Save in gold, spend in fiat, and don't wait for a politician to save you.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction and Global Investor Sentiment
00:05:20 - Voting, Politicians, and Self-Reliance
00:10:26 - France's Political Turmoil and Debt Crisis
00:19:25 - Viewing Markets Through a Gold Lens
00:26:09 - America's Wile E. Coyote Moment
00:32:30 - Treasury Appointments and Gold Revaluation Speculation
00:41:57 - Cantillon Effect and Positioning for Inflation
01:24:28 - Closing Thoughts and Final Advice